Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d35…f929 crypto 490 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$845 (-3%) realized −$849 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate57%276W / 205L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$536now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$202
14 days−$288
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$600
world 22% +$127
finance 19% −$374
crypto 12% +$46
sports 9% −$153
politics 3% +$24
culture 2% −$45
tech 1% −$5
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -9.2% -17.8% 55% 33% -14.6%
≤30d 201 -5.6% -14.6% 63% 40% -10.9%
≤90d 268 -5.0% -14.0% 60% 39% -11.2%
all 481 -2.7% -12.0% 57% 35% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 35% -12.4%
10% -20.4% 23% -20.8%
15% -28.1% 13% -28.4%
20% -35.1% 10% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$536
Realized−$849
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses276 / 205
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions8
Markets (closed)481 / 490
History coverage232d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 93¢ 95¢ $121 $124 +$3 (+2%)
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $70 $85 +$15 (+21%)
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 77¢ 73¢ $83 $79 −$4 (-5%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+2%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 58¢ 50¢ $44 $38 −$6 (-13%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 87¢ 75¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $118 −$71 -60%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $28 +$11 +40%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $555 −$17 -3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $39 −$19 -48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $57 +$7 +13%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,048 −$35 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $419 −$8 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $60 −$23 -38%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $62 +$4 +6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 −$14 -36%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 −$19 -38%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +23%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$17 -57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $72 +$1 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$5 -9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $30 +$3 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 +$7 +27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $45 +$3 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$6 +14%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $125 −$57 -46%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $160 +$62 +39%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $51 +$3 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $7 +$1 +16%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $60 +$3 +5%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $30 +$9 +30%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $113 +$15 +13%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $70 −$14 -19%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $15 −$4 -28%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $60 +$10 +16%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $36 +$28 +78%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 10 $49 −$48 -99%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 10 $6 $0 +8%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $25 +$2 +10%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $25 +$6 +24%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $30 +$13 +42%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $25 −$12 -49%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 10 $35 +$3 +8%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 09 $30 +$1 +3%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Santiago De La Fuente Jun 09 $35 +$3 +10%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 09 $35 +$4 +11%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $25 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $48 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $12 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $118 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $19 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 35¢ $10 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 28h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $65 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $125 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $72 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $133 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $111 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 57¢ $38 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 84¢ $66 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $37 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $25 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $26 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $118 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $60 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $40 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 53¢ $31 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 26¢ $13 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $50 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $51 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 77¢ $21 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 71¢ $23 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $535.54 · official $535.54 (match) · 1947 history records