Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:53:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

1D 0x1d35…c1cf crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip

Net edge-59%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate47%9W / 10L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$987per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$2,077now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$4

7 days+$8

14 days−$5

30 days+$10

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-57.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+0.2%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	15	-39.9%	-45.6%	60%	0%	-9.5%
≤90d	19	-52.5%	-57.1%	47%	0%	-9.6%
all	19	-52.5%	-57.1%	47%	0%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-57.1%	0%	-9.6%
10%	-61.2%	0%	-18.2%
15%	-64.9%	0%	-26.1%
20%	-68.4%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 11% · top 2 22% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -53% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,065) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -67% → late -40% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.83 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage

Net worth$2,077

Realized−$7

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses9 / 10

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage39d

Avg bet$987

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 22?	No	100¢	100¢	$2,069	$2,072	+$3 (+0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	95¢	96¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20?	Jun 21	$2,065	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20?	Jun 20	$2,061	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12?	Jun 13	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10?	Jun 11	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8?	Jun 08	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3?	Jun 04	$2,080	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3?	Jun 03	$2,076	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2?	Jun 02	$2,072	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1?	Jun 02	$2,069	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 1?	Jun 01	$2,065	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31?	Jun 01	$2,062	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 30?	May 31	$2,057	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27?	May 27	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24?	May 24	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on May 21?	May 22	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 19?	May 20	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 17?	May 18	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15?	May 15	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 22?	BUY No	100¢	$2,069	1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20?	BUY No	100¢	$2,065	2d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20?	BUY No	100¢	$2,061	2d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	10d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	14d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	95¢	$5	15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3?	BUY No	100¢	$2,080	19d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3?	BUY No	100¢	$2,076	19d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2?	BUY No	100¢	$2,072	20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1?	BUY No	100¢	$2,069	21d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 1?	BUY No	100¢	$2,065	21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31?	BUY No	100¢	$2,062	22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 30?	BUY No	100¢	$2,057	23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	26d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on May 21?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	32d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 19?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 17?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	36d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	38d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,077.22 · official $2,077.22 (match) · 32 history records