Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d30…91d6 weather 354 markets active 0h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,981 (-11%) realized −$1,959 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%130W / 220L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$530
14 days−$1,052
30 days−$1,831
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 52% −$1,635
world 15% −$137
sports 15% +$243
other 7% −$208
crypto 3% −$383
politics 3% −$105
finance 3% −$21
tech 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -27.0% -33.9% 25% 22% -46.3%
≤30d 176 -13.2% -21.5% 30% 27% -26.7%
≤90d 338 -10.0% -18.6% 36% 30% -21.0%
all 350 -8.4% -17.2% 37% 31% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 31% -20.9%
10% -25.1% 28% -28.5%
15% -32.3% 24% -35.4%
20% -39.0% 19% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$27 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$1,959
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses130 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions4
Markets (closed)350 / 354
History coverage151d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Yes 23¢ 25¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $23 −$19 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$4 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $42 −$17 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 −$6 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$59 +524%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $211 −$25 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 +$65 +186%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $28 +$24 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $7 −$4 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 −$3 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$10 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$22 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 −$14 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$7 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 +$70 +238%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $55 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $205 −$191 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $160 −$120 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$181 +951%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $30 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 08 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 51¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 74¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 76¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 23¢ $18 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $27 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.88 · official $68.88 (match) · 2260 history records