Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d30…1192 sports 714 markets active 3d ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-3%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate64%452W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$89
other 6% +$8
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +18.4% +7.1% 79% 67% +7.4%
≤30d 111 +8.2% -2.1% 74% 63% +8.0%
≤90d 699 -5.1% -14.1% 64% 57% -12.4%
all 706 -4.4% -13.5% 64% 57% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 57% -12.1%
10% -21.8% 48% -20.5%
15% -29.4% 39% -28.2%
20% -36.3% 28% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses452 / 254
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)706 / 714
History coverage255d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 706 Trades
no open positions (121 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +64%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 20 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +48%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $2 +$4 +285%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4 Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $2 +$3 +146%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 31 $1 +$1 +101%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 May 31 $2 +$1 +44%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $2 +$1 +54%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 31 $3 +$1 +38%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 31 $5 +$1 +20%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 31 $8 +$2 +24%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $24 +$19 +78%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $3 −$3 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) May 26 $2 $0 +11%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) May 26 $2 $0 +18%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $25 +$8 +33%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 26 $1 $0 +11%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $2 $0 +4%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) May 26 $7 +$1 +12%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $17 +$13 +77%
Roland Garros WTA: Akasha Urhobo vs Katie Boulter May 25 $1 $0 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 85¢ $2 3d
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 79¢ $1 3d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ $2 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $2 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1 3d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 91¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14 BUY 43¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 41¢ $1 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $1 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 67¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 41¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 3d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 93¢ $1 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1 3d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 83¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 39¢ $1 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 46¢ $1 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $1 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ $1 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $1 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 57¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 29¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2101 history records