Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1d2e…896d
sports · 381 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$286,146 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$283,551 · open −$2,594
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$44,725
Realized−$283,551
Unrealized−$2,594
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses156 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$27,668
Open positions5
Markets (closed)376 / 381
Avg bet$6,265
Trades / day55.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 5 History 376 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74,524
7 days+$31,214
14 days+$70,640
30 days+$64,810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) TheMongolz 40¢ 62¢ $15,933 $24,600 +$8,667 (+54%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 41¢ 30¢ $14,704 $10,938 −$3,766 (-26%)
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? Under 50¢ 100¢ $4,594 $9,144 +$4,550 (+99%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 56¢ 100¢ $17 $30 +$13 (+78%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner MOUZ 47¢ 0¢ $12,072 $13 −$12,059 (-100%)
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 No 45¢ 0¢ $817 $0 −$817 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Over 43¢ 0¢ $169 $0 −$169 (-100%)
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Yes 48¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BIG 49¢ 0¢ $1,706 $0 −$1,706 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 64¢ 0¢ $21,296 $0 −$21,296 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Team WE 21¢ 0¢ $8,933 $0 −$8,933 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 31.5 in Game 1? Over 46¢ 0¢ $2,014 $0 −$2,014 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? Over 45¢ 0¢ $3,194 $0 −$3,194 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? Over 53¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Bilibili Gaming 57¢ 0¢ $580 $0 −$580 (-100%)
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) EDward Gaming 47¢ 0¢ $9,622 $0 −$9,622 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? Over 43¢ 0¢ $4,544 $0 −$4,544 (-100%)
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 Yes 47¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Gen.G 25¢ 0¢ $9,967 $0 −$9,967 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Over 49¢ 0¢ $16,490 $0 −$16,490 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? Over 49¢ 0¢ $9,120 $0 −$9,120 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 2? Over 58¢ 0¢ $2,900 $0 −$2,900 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? Over 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Anyones Legend 50¢ 0¢ $3,341 $0 −$3,341 (-100%)
76ers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 109.5 Under 44¢ 0¢ $1,167 $0 −$1,167 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $4,339 +$4,751 +110%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $18,534 +$22,406 +121%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $45,556 +$35,097 +77%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10,223 −$10,073 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $8,847 +$6,756 +76%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,711 +$2,738 +101%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1,599 −$1,576 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $10,426 +$14,425 +138%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $19,076 −$9,061 -48%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,732 −$1,706 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $31,317 −$30,800 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $7,255 −$7,252 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $3,892 −$3,859 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) Jun 08 $49,073 −$48,987 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $5,075 +$3,110 +61%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $20,407 −$1,857 -9%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $48,510 +$56,089 +116%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $21,892 −$21,467 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? Jun 08 $3,185 +$2,758 +87%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? Jun 08 $3,373 +$2,651 +79%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 08 $21,080 +$16,562 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $19,350 +$23,958 +124%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $24,222 −$24,129 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $62 −$12 -19%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $62 +$38 +62%
Game Handicap: DK (-2.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+2.5) Jun 07 $136 +$151 +111%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 07 $2,297 +$1,469 +64%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $17,046 +$18,655 +109%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $387 −$387 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $27,358 −$26,935 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $47 −$46 -98%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 06 $24,773 +$30,306 +122%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $22,656 −$22,168 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $395 −$391 -99%
First Blood in Game 3? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $40 +$10 +26%
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1? Jun 02 $1,459 +$1,309 +90%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? Jun 02 $19,490 +$21,662 +111%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $30,271 +$30,256 +100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $24,009 −$23,969 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $33,922 −$29,074 -86%
Game 3: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 02 $11 +$23 +215%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 02 $18,229 +$35,116 +193%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $24,205 −$23,804 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $1,236 −$1,212 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 01 $5,639 +$5,257 +93%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? Jun 01 $8,187 +$7,660 +94%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Jun 01 $8,504 +$7,344 +86%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 3? May 31 $1,716 −$1,690 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 30 $13,588 +$27,044 +199%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% −$295,623
other 30% +$9,477
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 56¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $89 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 56¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $177 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $564 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $9,870 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $1,291 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $52 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $1,027 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $820 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $492 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $695 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +4.7% -5.2% 50% 50% -3.6%
≤30d 104 -2.5% -11.8% 45% 44% -2.8%
≤90d 376 -12.2% -20.5% 41% 41% -20.6%
all 376 -12.2% -20.5% 41% 41% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover55.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 41% -20.6%
10% -28.1% 41% -28.2%
15% ← realistic here -35.1% 40% -35.1%
20% -41.5% 39% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44,725.23 · official $44,725.23 (match) · 3500 history records