Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d2d…6cff other 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45 (-9%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate62%37W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$36
weather 17% −$10
sports 4% $0
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 18 -34.2% -40.4% 61% 11% -15.5%
≤90d 57 -30.9% -37.5% 61% 9% -18.8%
all 60 -29.3% -36.1% 62% 8% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.1% 8% -18.4%
10% -42.2% 7% -26.2%
15% -47.8% 7% -33.3%
20% -52.9% 3% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses37 / 23
Open positions5
Markets (closed)60 / 65
History coverage110d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will Türkiye score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 08 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? Jun 01 $1 $0 +6%
Will De'Aaron Fox win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? May 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? May 27 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 21? May 22 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 12? May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 7? May 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $24 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 28 $1 +$2 +216%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 22? Apr 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Obi Toppin win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? Apr 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 17? Apr 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 14? Apr 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA seaso Apr 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 15 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 13 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on April 2 Apr 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 03 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $2 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will Türkiye score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8d
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 11d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $3 12d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 13d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 14d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 15d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 20d
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $4 21d
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? BUY No 94¢ $1 25d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $2 26d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 27d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 28d
Will De'Aaron Fox win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $3 29d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $9 32d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 21? BUY No 98¢ $1 33d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? BUY No 99¢ $3 33d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $1 35d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $6 39d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 40d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 41d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $6 42d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.31 · official $48.31 (match) · 104 history records