Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1D 0x1d2b…9edf other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$179 (+16%) realized +$183 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$170
7 days+$170
14 days+$170
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$167
sports 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.6% -0.9% 75% 75% +13.5%
≤30d 4 +9.6% -0.9% 75% 75% +13.5%
≤90d 7 +14.8% +3.8% 71% 71% +12.9%
all 7 +14.8% +3.8% 71% 71% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 71% +12.9%
10% -6.1% 57% +2.1%
15% -15.2% 57% -7.8%
20% -23.5% 57% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$54 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$396
Realized+$183
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage66d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 74¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 +$70 +68%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $363 +$184 +50%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 22 $2 +$1 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 62¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $51 2h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $51 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $171 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $547 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $363 25h
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 57¢ $6 63d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 53¢ $3 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.31 · official $396.31 (match) · 21 history records