Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1D 0x1d29…f0fc crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$74 (+8%) realized +$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day55.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +4.5% -5.5% 67% 67% +0.7%
≤30d 24 +4.5% -5.5% 67% 67% +0.7%
≤90d 24 +4.5% -5.5% 67% 67% +0.7%
all 24 +4.5% -5.5% 67% 67% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 67% +0.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 50% -8.9%
15% -22.8% 42% -17.7%
20% -30.3% 21% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$21 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day55.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $76 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$23 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $76 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$10 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $20 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $61 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records