Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1D 0x1d26…5e33 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day50.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$35
other 5% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +1.2% -8.5% 78% 11% -9.0%
≤30d 18 +1.2% -8.5% 78% 11% -9.0%
≤90d 18 +1.2% -8.5% 78% 11% -9.0%
all 18 +1.2% -8.5% 78% 11% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 11% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$64 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $488 +$29 +6%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $452 +$21 +5%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $459 +$8 +2%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $432 +$26 +6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $424 +$8 +2%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $475 −$52 -11%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $429 +$34 +8%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $383 +$54 +14%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $373 +$15 +4%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $329 +$42 +13%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $314 +$17 +5%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $485 −$172 -35%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $487 −$1 -0%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $482 +$5 +1%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $460 +$13 +3%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $500 −$31 -6%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $477 +$24 +5%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $472 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $517 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 92¢ $22 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 94¢ $466 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $472 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 95¢ $452 3h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $468 13h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 98¢ $459 13h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $31 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records