Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d25…12c6 sports 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$697 (-9%) realized −$697 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%17W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$648
other 29% −$75
crypto 2% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -32.5% -39.0% 29% 29% -20.5%
≤30d 59 -32.5% -39.0% 29% 29% -20.5%
≤90d 59 -32.5% -39.0% 29% 29% -20.5%
all 59 -32.5% -39.0% 29% 29% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.0% 29% -20.5%
10% -44.8% 25% -28.1%
15% -50.1% 24% -35.0%
20% -55.0% 22% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$74 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$697
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses17 / 42
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage7d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $1,441 +$152 +10%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $247 −$244 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $1,023 −$482 -47%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $91 −$89 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $169 −$165 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $250 +$500 +200%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $155 −$76 -49%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $330 +$69 +21%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $197 −$194 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $113 +$88 +78%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $30 +$23 +75%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $558 +$160 +29%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $148 +$180 +122%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $122 −$111 -91%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$51 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $80 −$78 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $116 +$132 +114%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$21 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $191 +$98 +51%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $59 −$40 -68%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $198 +$173 +87%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $119 +$130 +109%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $171 −$133 -78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $33 −$33 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $34 +$202 +596%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$103 +201%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $161 −$158 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $428 10m
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 80¢ $340 20m
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 57¢ $494 42m
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 48¢ $398 45m
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 58¢ $494 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 43¢ $427 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 44¢ $452 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 58¢ $247 1h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 80¢ $480 21h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Alexandra Eala 20¢ $71 21h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 19¢ $71 21h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Elena Rybakina 83¢ $462 21h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 84¢ $472 21h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 9¢ $91 22h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 27¢ $169 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $750 36h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $75 37h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 30¢ $75 37h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $80 37h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $250 38h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 86¢ $330 39h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 55¢ $126 39h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 35¢ $138 40h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $39 40h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 21¢ $61 40h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 25¢ $72 40h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 19¢ $69 40h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 25¢ $82 41h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 41h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 51¢ $193 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records