Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:17:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d25…ced8 sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$827 (-22%) realized −$827 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%13W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$53
14 days+$655
30 days−$747
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$675
other 14% −$77
crypto 6% −$136
world 2% +$6
culture 1% −$13
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 32 -20.6% -28.1% 22% 22% -31.6%
≤90d 32 -20.6% -28.1% 22% 22% -31.6%
all 55 -21.8% -29.2% 24% 20% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 20% -32.2%
10% -36.0% 15% -38.7%
15% -42.2% 15% -44.6%
20% -47.8% 13% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$43 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$827
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses13 / 42
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage158d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 41¢ 42¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $55 −$53 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $80 −$78 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $55 +$25 +46%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $114 +$155 +136%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $122 −$8 -6%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $165 +$370 +224%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $139 +$140 +101%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $111 +$103 +93%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $113 −$58 -51%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $106 −$64 -60%
Barcelona vs. CB Murcia Jun 04 $248 −$244 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 04 $42 +$9 +20%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $544 −$533 -98%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $49 −$6 -12%
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $50 −$8 -16%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 04 $67 −$27 -41%
Will Gabriel Magalhães score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $26 −$1 -5%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $29 −$7 -23%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $25 −$2 -8%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $25 −$3 -11%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $50 −$2 -5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $328 −$71 -22%
Set 1 Winner: Shnaider vs Chwalinska Jun 04 $145 −$143 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $39 −$38 -98%
Marta Kostyuk vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $66 −$65 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $55 −$54 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Cobolli Jun 03 $75 +$66 +88%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5) Jun 03 $81 −$80 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $67 −$65 -98%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $21 −$1 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1PM ET Jan 13 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-01-13? Jan 13 $134 −$5 -4%
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) Jan 13 $20 −$2 -10%
Hobart International: Emma Raducanu vs Camila Osorio Jan 13 $35 $0 -1%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 13 $30 +$5 +16%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) Jan 13 $21 −$11 -54%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)? Jan 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 13 $31 +$1 +2%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? Jan 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 13 $15 −$8 -54%
Will Xabi Alonso be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jan 13 $13 −$7 -52%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Aw Jan 13 $5 −$5 -91%
Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Jan 13 $5 −$3 -55%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5 Jan 13 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 13 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Jan 13 $5 −$2 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $27 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $55 1h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $80 8d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 94¢ $269 9d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 39¢ $114 9d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 41¢ $114 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 68¢ $55 9d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 42¢ $122 9d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 82¢ $312 9d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 59¢ $223 9d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 12¢ $55 9d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 34¢ $110 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 94¢ $279 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $139 10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $111 11d
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $55 16d
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $56 16d
Barcelona vs. CB Murcia BUY Barcelona 55¢ $90 16d
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 19¢ $39 16d
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 23¢ $51 16d
Barcelona vs. CB Murcia BUY Barcelona 42¢ $56 16d
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 25¢ $57 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 16d
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 23¢ $50 16d
Barcelona vs. CB Murcia BUY Barcelona 64¢ $102 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Diana Shnaider 40¢ $46 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.33 · official $27.33 (match) · 118 history records