Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1D 0x1d24…6249 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$69 (+3%) realized +$36 · open +$33

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR19%break-even

Win rate56%9W / 7L

Drawdown82%max

Avg bet$84per market

Trades / day98.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +19%

net ROI/market (all)-10.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-1.2%	-10.6%	56%	19%	-7.4%
≤30d	16	-1.2%	-10.6%	56%	19%	-7.4%
≤90d	16	-1.2%	-10.6%	56%	19%	-7.4%
all	16	-1.2%	-10.6%	56%	19%	-7.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover98.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-10.6%	19%	-7.4%
10% ← realistic here	-19.2%	12%	-16.3%
15%	-27.0%	6%	-24.4%
20%	-34.1%	6%	-31.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

67% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +13% → late -16% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$102

Realized+$36

Unrealized+$33

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses9 / 7

Open positions10

Markets (closed)16 / 26

History coverage1d

Avg bet$84

Trades / day98.0

Drawdown82%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 10 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	6¢	50¢	$4	$34	+$30 (+751%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	59¢	50¢	$20	$17	−$3 (-16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	25¢	50¢	$8	$16	+$8 (+102%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	75¢	50¢	$20	$13	−$7 (-33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	32¢	50¢	$5	$8	+$3 (+58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	41¢	50¢	$4	$5	+$1 (+21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	25¢	50¢	$2	$4	+$2 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	34¢	52¢	$2	$3	+$1 (+51%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	66¢	50¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	10¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 22	$52	−$3	-5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Jun 22	$97	+$26	+27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Jun 22	$25	−$19	-78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 22	$252	−$9	-4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 22	$246	+$39	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Jun 22	$6	−$5	-84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Jun 22	$126	−$4	-3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Jun 22	$81	+$4	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 22	$90	+$4	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 22	$71	+$4	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 22	$80	+$1	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 22	$3	+$7	+212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 22	$78	+$2	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Jun 22	$32	−$9	-28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 22	$22	+$2	+9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	SELL Up	55¢	$49	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$52	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$3	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$2	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$2	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	SELL Down	56¢	$13	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$10	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	SELL Up	63¢	$110	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$87	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$5	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$19	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$20	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	SELL Down	85¢	$35	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$27	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$20	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$5	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$20	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$36	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$21	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	SELL Down	64¢	$11	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$21	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$8	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	SELL Down	56¢	$122	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$124	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	SELL Up	68¢	$120	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$123	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$5	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	SELL Up	70¢	$109	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$122	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$4	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.69 · official $101.60 (match) · 105 history records