Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:03:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d21…dba6 sports 563 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,279 (+1%) realized +$8,279 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate81%554W / 134L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$2,592per market
Trades / day49.6pace
Fees−$135est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 59d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$4,603
crypto 31% +$127
other 23% +$632
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 -62.0% -65.6% 36% 1% -10.7%
≤30d 462 -26.5% -33.5% 72% 1% -9.7%
≤90d 688 -17.9% -25.7% 81% 1% -9.4%
all 688 -17.9% -25.7% 81% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 1% -9.4%
10% -32.8% 0% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -39.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -45.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,520) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$35 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8,279
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses554 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$135
Open positions0
Markets (closed)688 / 563
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$2,592
Trades / day49.6
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 688 Trades
no open positions (130 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
World Chess Championship 2021: Will there be more or less than 12 draw Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 14? Jun 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 11AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 15? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 9AM ET Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 17? Jun 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 26, 5AM ET Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $59 −$59 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 4 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will a picture surface of Kim Kardashian and Pete Davidson kissing bef Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 5 Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 7AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8AM ET Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY No 100¢ $2 59m
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Spain? BUY No 100¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $63 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY No 99¢ $954 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY No 99¢ $192 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY No 99¢ $151 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY No 99¢ $148 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY No 100¢ $275 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY No 99¢ $1,413 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY No 100¢ $224 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Spain? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $2,069 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $7 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 BUY Under 99¢ $65 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 BUY Under 99¢ $62 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 BUY Under 99¢ $62 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 99¢ $51 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 99¢ $119 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 BUY Under 99¢ $119 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records