Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1D 0x1d1f…f504 crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%84W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$8
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 26 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 84 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses84 / 0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)84 / 90
History coverage242d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? No 99¢ 98¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 20 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? Jun 05 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 17? May 18 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 12? May 16 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? May 10 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 04 $119 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $420 end of April? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in April? May 03 $3 $0 +3%
Will France strike Iran by April 30? May 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 30? May 03 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 25? Apr 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 24 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $105 $0 +0%
Will Trump talk to Mark Carney in April? Apr 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 3? Apr 04 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $105 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $4 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 31? Apr 01 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 25? Mar 26 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 21? Mar 22 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 17? Mar 20 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 14? Mar 16 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 9? Mar 13 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6? Mar 08 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 1? Mar 03 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 20? Feb 21 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 18 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on February 1 Feb 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 1 Feb 13 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 11 Feb 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on February 10? Feb 11 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 8 Feb 09 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on February 3? Feb 05 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $104 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 01 $3 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $5 5d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? BUY No 99¢ $4 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $116 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $119 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $121 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $115 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $117 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $116 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $117 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $118 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $119 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $102 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $104 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 62d
Will Meta (META) close above $420 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 64d
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $106 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $105 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 76d
Will France strike Iran by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $7 80d
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in April? BUY No 97¢ $3 80d
Will Trump talk to Mark Carney in April? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 80d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $118 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $105 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $106 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $110 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.96 · official $122.96 (match) · 174 history records