Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1d1f…e428
weather · 811 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$208 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$909 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized−$909
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses276 / 722
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)998 / 811
History coverage62d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day53.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 998 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$275
7 days−$310
14 days−$286
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Yes 7¢ 24¢ $6 $18 +$13 (+229%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Yes 34¢ 46¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Yes 45¢ 29¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 18? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 18? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on April 18? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 16? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on April 13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on April 21? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 19? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 14? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or below on April 24? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 19? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 26? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 20? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 10? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on April 19? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16? No 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 14? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on May 4? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on April 18? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on April 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 19? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 19? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 20? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on April 19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on May 4? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C or below on April 17? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on April 20? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on April 18? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 20? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 18? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 17? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 19? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on April 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on April 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C or below on April 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 18? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on April 15 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -136%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on May 7? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 19? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on May 3? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C or below on April 22? Jun 14 $0 −$1 -296%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 13? Jun 14 $1 −$4 -388%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on April 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on April 28? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on May 6? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 35°F or below on April 21? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 12? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on April 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 21? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 21 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 20? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C or below on April 22? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on April 18? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$577
crypto 0% −$1
other 0% −$9
politics 0% −$5
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 38m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 42m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? SELL No 2¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 20¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 87¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 15¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 88¢ $36 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 259 -70.9% -73.6% 13% 6% -35.3%
≤30d 514 -24.2% -31.4% 27% 15% -15.3%
≤90d 998 -2.9% -12.2% 28% 19% -20.6%
all 998 -2.9% -12.2% 28% 19% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover53.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 19% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 17% -28.2%
15% -28.2% 14% -35.2%
20% -35.3% 13% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.01 · official $28.63 · 3500 history records