Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d1f…92be crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+2%) realized +$22 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day83.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$31
other 6% +$23
sports 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -2.2% -11.5% 64% 48% -10.1%
≤30d 25 -2.2% -11.5% 64% 48% -10.1%
≤90d 25 -2.2% -11.5% 64% 48% -10.1%
all 25 -2.2% -11.5% 64% 48% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 48% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 40% -18.7%
15% -27.7% 36% -26.6%
20% -34.8% 16% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$19 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day83.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-11%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $36 −$23 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $37 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $37 −$15 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $19 +$9 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $19 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $37 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $57 −$15 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $19 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $56 +$28 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $19 +$10 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $68 −$11 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 28 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $68 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $43 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $62 −$31 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $45 +$30 +66%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $27 +$1 +5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $25 +$22 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $18 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $12 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $19 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $19 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $19 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $27 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $19 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $28 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $19 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $13 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $19 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $19 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $19 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $19 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $17 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $19 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $20 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $19 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $19 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $19 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $33 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.33 · official $9.15 (match) · 85 history records