Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:39:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d1d…053f crypto 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,026 (-40%) realized −$1,026 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate53%40W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day78.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$85
other 39% −$982
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -24.6% -31.8% 53% 33% -48.9%
≤30d 75 -24.6% -31.8% 53% 33% -48.9%
≤90d 75 -24.6% -31.8% 53% 33% -48.9%
all 75 -24.6% -31.8% 53% 33% -48.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.8% 33% -48.9%
10% ← realistic here -38.3% 16% -53.8%
15% -44.3% 8% -58.3%
20% -49.7% 7% -62.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$36 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,026
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses40 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day78.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $54 −$41 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$43 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $61 −$44 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $61 +$13 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records