Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8.5
score
1D 0x1d1a…324e politics 705 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,267 (+14%) realized +$10,162 · open +$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate62%429W / 265L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,814now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$778
7 days+$850
14 days−$32
30 days+$1,220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$6,875
world 28% +$2,096
other 20% +$85
tech 3% −$911
crypto 3% +$765
sports 2% −$331
finance 2% +$233
economics 0% +$23
culture 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +37.5% +24.4% 45% 33% -3.1%
≤30d 234 +30.6% +18.2% 57% 39% -6.6%
≤90d 647 +30.7% +18.3% 61% 43% +0.7%
all 694 +34.5% +21.7% 62% 45% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.7% 45% +1.6%
10% ← realistic here +10.0% 36% -8.1%
15% -0.6% 31% -17.0%
20% -10.3% 28% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +48% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$37 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$1,814
Realized+$10,162
Unrealized+$105
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses429 / 265
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions12
Markets (closed)694 / 705
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$104
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 694 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 76¢ $897 $842 −$55 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $275 $272 −$2 (-1%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 62¢ 74¢ $147 $176 +$30 (+20%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 88¢ $124 $175 +$51 (+41%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 58¢ 99¢ $47 $79 +$33 (+69%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 14¢ 38¢ $26 $71 +$46 (+178%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 62¢ 70¢ $62 $70 +$8 (+14%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 62¢ 100¢ $31 $50 +$19 (+61%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $32 $41 +$8 (+26%)
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-9%)
Will Donald Trump dance on June 16, 2026? No 73¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $31 $2 −$30 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $109 −$4 -4%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $104 +$23 +22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$2 -6%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? Jun 17 $56 +$37 +66%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $131 −$96 -74%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 17 $284 +$9 +3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $113 +$4 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $99 −$6 -6%
Will Trump say "Warrior" this week? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? Jun 17 $56 −$10 -18%
Will Trump post "NATO" on Truth Social this week? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -96%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $265 −$87 -33%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during G7 events? Jun 16 $252 +$6 +2%
Will Trump say "Affordability" this week? Jun 16 $36 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $873 +$934 +107%
Will Trump say "World Cup" this week? Jun 15 $35 +$8 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $610 +$312 +51%
Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience Jun 15 $72 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $9 +$313 +3308%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? Jun 15 $38 −$27 -72%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 15 $45 −$32 -72%
Will Trump say "Hell" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 5+ times during his next YouTube video? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $84 −$61 -73%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 15 $145 −$29 -20%
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? Jun 15 $18 +$10 +55%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $88 +$14 +16%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $47 −$22 -46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $212 +$188 +89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,306 −$867 -66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $218 −$26 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $306 −$49 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $340 −$93 -27%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $73 −$1 -1%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 14 $65 −$15 -22%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $80 +$107 +134%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $796 −$59 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $650 +$38 +6%
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? Jun 13 $37 +$1 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $859 +$159 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $167 +$54 +32%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $303 +$50 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $91 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 12 $54 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $252 −$4 -2%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $39 +$67 +174%
Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during Tele-Ral Jun 12 $46 +$58 +127%
Will Trump say "Radical Left" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $160 +$41 +26%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 11 $476 +$17 +4%
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" this week? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $77 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $45 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $51 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 2h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $29 3h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $29 3h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $2 3h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $58 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $13 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $7 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $0 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $16 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $38 3h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? SELL No 93¢ $33 5h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? SELL No 93¢ $1 5h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? SELL No 93¢ $17 6h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? SELL No 93¢ $23 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $36 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $38 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $43 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $36 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $25 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $82 6h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 10¢ $20 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 50¢ $5 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 50¢ $95 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $509 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,814.43 · official $1,809.80 (match) · 3500 history records