Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:21:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d13…3c2f other 274 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$241 (-0%) realized +$1,969 · open −$2,210
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%162W / 134L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$522per market
Trades / day85.4pace
Fees−$297est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$9,983now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$5,777
sports 18% +$1,821
politics 2% −$179
world 0% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -19.4% -27.1% 52% 41% -25.6%
≤30d 260 -11.5% -19.9% 55% 44% -18.5%
≤90d 296 -11.1% -19.6% 55% 44% -16.4%
all 296 -11.1% -19.6% 55% 44% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 44% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 35% -24.4%
15% -34.3% 28% -31.7%
20% -40.7% 17% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$317 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$9,983
Realized+$1,969
Unrealized−$2,210
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses162 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$297
Open positions27
Markets (closed)296 / 274
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$522
Trades / day85.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $4,638 $5,516 +$878 (+19%)
Harry Kane: 3+ goals No 67¢ 66¢ $1,074 $1,050 −$23 (-2%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Haaland 82¢ 88¢ $728 $789 +$61 (+8%)
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals No 76¢ 76¢ $776 $771 −$5 (-1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 82¢ 87¢ $461 $491 +$30 (+7%)
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 94¢ $230 $338 +$109 (+47%)
Petar Musa: 1+ goals Yes 99¢ 97¢ $315 $310 −$5 (-2%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 20¢ 13¢ $282 $187 −$96 (-34%)
Will Harry Kane score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $118 $121 +$3 (+3%)
Will Reece James be in England's Starting 11? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $113 $114 +$1 (+1%)
Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots No 20¢ 40¢ $40 $80 +$40 (+98%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 89¢ 34¢ $143 $54 −$89 (-62%)
No one announced as next James Bond? No 10¢ 7¢ $57 $41 −$17 (-29%)
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 85¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+5%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 80¢ 98¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+23%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 36¢ 78¢ $8 $18 +$10 (+119%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-24%)
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? No 54¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals No 84¢ 85¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots No 12¢ 50¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+312%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $26 $4 −$22 (-86%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals No 54¢ 0¢ $2,940 $3 −$2,937 (-100%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals No 80¢ 0¢ $133 $1 −$132 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $679 −$679 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans - Toss Match Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5) Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $7 −$13 -200%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians - Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $470 −$470 -100%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 1 - 0 Nottingham Forest FC? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Julian Alvarez: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $478 −$478 -100%
Eli Junior Kroupi: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $643 −$643 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Jeremy Doku: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $1,048 −$1,048 -100%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $857 −$857 -100%
Alexander Isak: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Benjamin Sesko: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $419 −$419 -100%
Cody Gakpo: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Casemiro: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals - Team To Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ferran Torres: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru - Jun 17 $164 −$164 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans - Who wins t Jun 17 $414 −$414 -100%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Robert Lewandowski: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $167 −$167 -100%
Joao Pedro: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants - C Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders - Toss Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 17 $226 −$226 -100%
Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $303 −$303 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 17 $252 −$252 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Benjamin Sesko: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Lamine Yamal: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $314 −$314 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 FC Bayern München? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Everton FC 1 - 0 Manchester City FC? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 1 - 0 Newcastle United FC? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Jeremy Doku: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $236 −$236 -100%
Albert Gudmundsson: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals Jun 17 $9 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $22 18m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $4 19m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $66 19m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $166 20m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $7 20m
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $198 20m
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $29 20m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $66 21m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $332 21m
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $24 21m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $2 21m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $2 22m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $5 23m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $16 23m
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $5 26m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 67¢ $102 27m
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $25 28m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 67¢ $203 28m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 67¢ $2 28m
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $35 29m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 56¢ $13 33m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 56¢ $3 33m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 56¢ $13 33m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 56¢ $2 33m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 56¢ $9 34m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 56¢ $1 34m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 60¢ $14 35m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 60¢ $15 35m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 60¢ $2 35m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 60¢ $8 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,983.13 · official $9,908.24 (match) · 3500 history records