Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:49:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1D 0x1d0d…d782 crypto 1480 markets active 1d ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$213 (+1%) realized +$213 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate81%1198W / 281L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$7
14 days−$153
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$24
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +14.7% +3.8% 80% 53% -3.6%
≤30d 599 +2.8% -7.0% 75% 50% -10.5%
≤90d 1479 +4.2% -5.7% 81% 42% -9.4%
all 1479 +4.2% -5.7% 81% 42% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 42% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 27% -18.1%
15% -23.0% 17% -26.0%
20% -30.5% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1198 / 281
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1479 / 1480
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1479 Trades
no open positions (134 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$7 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$10 -67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$13 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$7 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $15 −$9 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $30 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $15 −$9 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $14 −$7 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records