Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:32:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1D 0x1d0b…14ed sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$64 (-3%) realized −$59 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$92
14 days−$84
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$116
other 32% +$30
tech 4% +$2
world 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.6% -9.0% 47% 40% -16.3%
≤30d 20 +2.6% -7.2% 55% 35% -14.0%
≤90d 20 +2.6% -7.2% 55% 35% -14.0%
all 20 +2.6% -7.2% 55% 35% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 35% -14.0%
10% -16.1% 20% -22.2%
15% -24.2% 20% -29.7%
20% -31.6% 10% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$23 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$329
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage29d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $211 $207 −$4 (-2%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 69¢ 68¢ $83 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 60¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $36 +$34 +97%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $223 −$81 -36%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $40 +$17 +41%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$31 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $20 −$5 -25%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $75 +$12 +16%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $51 −$10 -19%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $79 −$24 -30%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $94 −$37 -40%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $18 +$11 +61%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $100 $0 -0%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $183 −$14 -8%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $63 +$14 +22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $179 +$17 +9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $132 +$7 +6%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 02 $81 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $73 +$4 +5%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $11 +$4 +41%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $7 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $91 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $40 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $120 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 68¢ $85 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 69¢ $172 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 50¢ $36 22h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 26h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $1 26h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 42¢ $63 26h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 47¢ $69 26h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 64¢ $64 26h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 27h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 73¢ $43 27h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 80¢ $28 27h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 80¢ $52 27h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 84¢ $34 27h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 84¢ $0 27h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $57 47h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $40 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 SELL Over 44¢ $15 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $87 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $1 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $74 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $0 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 50¢ $41 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 63¢ $56 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.02 · official $329.02 (match) · 64 history records