Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1D 0x1d08…54c9 weather 408 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 177d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,229 (-17%) realized −$2,154 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%223W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$1,517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$1,381
weather 36% −$558
other 15% −$227
sports 2% −$2
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$2
politics 1% −$9
world 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -33.5% -39.8% 40% 30% -19.8%
≤30d 305 -17.5% -25.4% 57% 39% -30.7%
≤90d 334 -14.7% -22.8% 60% 40% -26.7%
all 404 -13.4% -21.6% 55% 36% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 36% -24.2%
10% -29.1% 26% -31.4%
15% -36.0% 17% -38.1%
20% -42.3% 7% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$20 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized−$2,154
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses223 / 181
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)404 / 408
History coverage178d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 404 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $198 $153 −$45 (-23%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $98 $94 −$4 (-4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $101 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 52¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $53 +$57 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $50 +$51 +101%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $13 −$12 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$12 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 01 $30 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 01 $33 +$7 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 01 $41 +$12 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 01 $32 −$32 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? Jun 01 $3 −$5 -192%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 01 $82 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 01 $77 −$76 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 01 $16 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 01 $48 −$48 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 01 $65 −$65 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 01 $75 +$30 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 01 $152 −$102 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 01 $80 −$80 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 01 $105 −$104 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $8 +$3 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $24 +$19 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 01 $45 +$21 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 01 $56 +$28 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 01 $72 +$57 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 01 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 01 $88 −$88 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 01 $208 −$208 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 01 $45 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 01 $49 +$14 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 01 $54 +$26 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 01 $69 +$27 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 01 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 01 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 01 $8 +$4 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 01 $12 +$6 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $51 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $51 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $16 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $5 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $22 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $57 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $13 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $13 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $53 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $50 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $101 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $104 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $101 5d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 12d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 47¢ $8 12d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 52¢ $10 14d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 14d
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 17d
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 17d
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 17d
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 17d
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 17d
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 17d
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 17d
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.07 · official $321.76 (match) · 3500 history records