Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1d04…ed05
politics · 79 markets active 409d ago
0.0score
−$562,089 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$562,089 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$562,089
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage865d
Avg bet$31,004
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 0 History 79 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $141,637 $0 −$141,637 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Apr 29 $141,771 −$141,637 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
Was JFK assassination an inside job? Apr 01 $14,945 −$14,945 -100%
Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration? Mar 22 $1,900 +$80 +4%
Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? Mar 15 $8,386 +$1,154 +14%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Feb 12 $9,157 +$6,207 +68%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 29 $1,018,760 −$1,018,760 -100%
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense? Jan 29 $4,850 +$8,650 +178%
Will JD Vance be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jan 09 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jan 09 $4,800 −$4,800 -100%
Will Republicans control 220 seats in the House after the election? Dec 05 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
Will John Cornyn be the next Senate Majority Leader? Dec 04 $9,000 +$970 +11%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 17 $8,631 −$8,631 -100%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Nov 15 $5,316 +$5,474 +103%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 12 $35,117 +$64,883 +185%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154 Nov 10 $21,433 −$21,433 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214 Nov 10 $10,139 −$10,139 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ Nov 10 $19,218 −$19,218 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $1,005 −$5 -0%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104 Nov 10 $4,353 +$647 +15%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $40,335 +$31,238 +77%
Biden removed via 25th Amendment? Nov 05 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race? Nov 05 $23,734 −$23,734 -100%
Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? Oct 11 $62 −$62 -100%
Biden resigns from presidency by August 31? Oct 11 $26,840 −$26,840 -100%
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? Aug 24 $2,010 +$6,923 +344%
RFK Jr. endorses Trump before November? Aug 24 $1,114 +$288 +26%
Will Biden speak at the DNC? Aug 23 $8,054 −$8,054 -100%
Biden diagnosed with "medical condition" before DNC? Aug 23 $914 −$914 -100%
Was Biden campaign call fake? Aug 05 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31? Aug 05 $104,594 −$104,594 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 05 $9,800 +$400 +4%
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic VP nominee? Aug 01 $1,685 +$11,621 +690%
Kamala president by Friday? Jul 29 $9,440 −$7,747 -82%
Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference? Jul 29 $2,429 −$2,429 -100%
Will $BTC reach 70k in July? Jul 29 $30,000 +$30,002 +100%
Will $BTC hit $50k or $70k first? Jul 29 $125,000 +$25,000 +20%
Will Kamala speak at Bitcoin conference? Jul 27 $7,047 −$14 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Jul 26 $2,443 +$157 +6%
Will the Director of Secret Service be fired/resign? Jul 24 $15,000 +$5,000 +33%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 23 $12,081 +$85,791 +710%
Will 50 Cent attend the RNC? Jul 23 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Joe Biden make an appearance today? Jul 23 $2,744 +$917 +33%
Biden wins the Popular Vote? Jul 22 $89,313 +$111,686 +125%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 21 $44,874 +$15,066 +34%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 21 $42,628 +$174,693 +410%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Jul 21 $121,135 +$246,551 +204%
Will another man win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 16 $3,092 +$408 +13%
Colombia wins Copa America 2024? Jul 16 $1,100 +$100 +9%
Joey Chestnut competes in Nathan's Hot Dog Contest? Jul 16 $117 −$117 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 84% −$474,371
crypto 14% −$75,110
other 2% −$10,167
sports 0% +$1,138
world 0% −$3,580
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $7,939 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $10,602 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $38 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $350 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $263 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $500 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $250 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $35 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $483 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $39 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $200 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,000 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $521 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $132 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $126 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,000 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,500 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $35 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $521 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,000 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,500 409d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 5¢ $56 409d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 79 +2.0% -7.7% 46% 37% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 37% -30.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 29% -37.0%
15% -24.6% 22% -43.0%
20% -32.0% 20% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3303 history records