Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:20:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1d03…2b08
sports · 27 markets active 0h ago
4.0score
+$4 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$6
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)22 / 27
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 5 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Vitality 71¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 65¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +140%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +22%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $3 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 79% +$1
other 21% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $1 14m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $6 46m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 71¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 81¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 98¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 82¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $2 11h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 15¢ $0 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1 12h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 75¢ $1 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 12h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 31h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 35h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $1 36h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 39h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 97¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 97¢ $10 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 94¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 77¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +10.6% +0.1% 68% 55% -2.8%
≤30d 22 +10.6% +0.1% 68% 55% -2.8%
≤90d 22 +10.6% +0.1% 68% 55% -2.8%
all 22 +10.6% +0.1% 68% 55% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 55% -2.8%
10% -9.5% 32% -12.1%
15% -18.3% 27% -20.6%
20% -26.3% 23% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.25 · official $6.25 (match) · 57 history records