Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1D 0x1d00…e1e0 sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$53 (+2%) realized +$150 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate56%41W / 32L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$39
14 days+$5
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$34
finance 24% −$19
sports 22% +$29
crypto 3% −$7
culture 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -9.3% -18.0% 50% 33% -1.0%
≤30d 31 +5.1% -4.9% 52% 32% -2.8%
≤90d 73 +11.2% +0.7% 56% 38% -3.5%
all 73 +11.2% +0.7% 56% 38% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 38% -3.5%
10% -9.0% 30% -12.7%
15% -17.8% 23% -21.2%
20% -25.8% 16% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$150
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses41 / 32
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)73 / 76
History coverage61d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 35¢ 11¢ $105 $33 −$72 (-68%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Yes 30¢ 14¢ $45 $20 −$25 (-55%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 12 $75 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $162 +$26 +16%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 27? Jun 10 $86 −$19 -22%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 10 $66 +$33 +50%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c Jun 06 $107 −$33 -31%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? May 28 $28 +$13 +46%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? May 28 $90 +$28 +31%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $19 +$1 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $20 +$1 +5%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 23 $64 −$4 -6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 23 $84 +$9 +10%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 19 $9 −$2 -27%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 19 $62 −$21 -34%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner May 19 $3 −$1 -17%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? May 19 $38 +$14 +37%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 3 May 19 $30 +$26 +88%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 3 May 19 $13 +$26 +197%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? May 19 $30 −$24 -81%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 May 19 $22 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 42 million views on day 2 May 18 $6 +$10 +170%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $76 +$4 +5%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner May 17 $5 +$3 +69%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 16 $5 +$13 +249%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner May 16 $141 +$23 +16%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $5 +$6 +116%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $65 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $64 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $745 Week of May 11 2026? May 13 $68 +$22 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 12 $58 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May? May 07 $22 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 07 $11 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 07 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 07 $5 +$4 +68%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $15 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 07 $16 +$3 +18%
Will MrBeast's video get between 70 and 71 million views on day 4? May 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 Week of May 4 2026? May 06 $23 +$6 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $85 39h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 40h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL Yes 47¢ $44 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY Yes 47¢ $45 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL Yes 49¢ $30 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY Yes 47¢ $18 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? SELL Yes 39¢ $17 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? SELL Yes 92¢ $104 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? BUY Yes 62¢ $62 5d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 5d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 7d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c SELL Yes 33¢ $74 9d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c BUY Yes 44¢ $4 14d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c BUY Yes 44¢ $31 14d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c BUY Yes 44¢ $9 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 99¢ $43 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.11 · official $59.11 (match) · 327 history records