Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1cff…e0b6
weather · 1083 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,874 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$870 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$870
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses236 / 625
Open positions5
Markets (closed)861 / 1083
History coverage41d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day78.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 861 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$58
14 days+$81
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Yes 33¢ 93¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+180%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Yes 64¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 31? Yes 45¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+122%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 28? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 10? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 31? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 31? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on May 15? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 29? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 12? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 7? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 23? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 1? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 14? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 7? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 3? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +465%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$5 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$5 +406%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$9 +963%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$4 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$3 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 94°F or higher on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$9 +1492%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 +$6 +280%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 51% −$136
weather 49% −$732
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 +17.1% +6.0% 33% 33% +29.3%
≤30d 603 -6.2% -15.1% 27% 27% -14.5%
≤90d 861 -11.7% -20.1% 27% 25% -17.8%
all 861 -11.7% -20.1% 27% 25% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover78.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 25% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 23% -25.7%
15% -34.8% 21% -32.9%
20% -41.2% 20% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.38 · official $7.24 (match) · 3500 history records