Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1cfe…4341 sports 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 287d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$123 (-2%) realized −$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$46
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$202
other 30% +$141
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +226.1% +195.1% 100% 100% +195.1%
≤30d 1 +226.1% +195.1% 100% 100% +195.1%
≤90d 1 +226.1% +195.1% 100% 100% +195.1%
all 56 -9.5% -18.1% 45% 45% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 45% -10.6%
10% -26.0% 45% -19.1%
15% -33.1% 45% -26.9%
20% -39.7% 43% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +226% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$103 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

287d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage287d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $20 +$46 +226%
Commanders vs. Falcons Sep 28 $112 −$112 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Sep 27 $200 −$200 -100%
LSU vs. Ole Miss Sep 27 $200 −$200 -100%
O/U 52.5 Sep 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Penn State (-3.5) Sep 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Alabama vs. Georgia Sep 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs MIBR Sep 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Girona win on 2025-09-26? Sep 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Seahawks vs. Cardinals Sep 26 $300 +$249 +83%
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Sep 25 $120 −$120 -100%
Astros vs. Athletics Sep 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-25? Sep 25 $200 +$170 +85%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-09-25? Sep 25 $200 +$170 +85%
Mets vs. Cubs Sep 25 $200 +$177 +88%
Marlins vs. Phillies Sep 25 $250 +$167 +67%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-24? Sep 24 $105 +$133 +127%
Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? Sep 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Mets vs. Cubs Sep 24 $100 +$100 +100%
Marlins vs. Phillies Sep 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Astros vs. Athletics Sep 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sevilla win on 2025-09-23? Sep 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Lions vs. Ravens Sep 23 $100 +$212 +212%
Spread: KC (-6.5) Sep 22 $100 +$113 +112%
Red Sox vs. Rays Sep 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Cowboys vs. Bears Sep 21 $100 +$73 +73%
Spread: PHI (-3.5) Sep 21 $221 +$203 +92%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-21? Sep 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-21? Sep 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Red Sox vs. Rays Sep 21 $100 +$108 +108%
Michigan vs. Nebraska Sep 20 $121 +$111 +92%
Cubs vs. Reds Sep 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Syracuse vs. Clemson Sep 20 $100 +$82 +82%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? Sep 20 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20? Sep 20 $219 +$108 +49%
Iowa vs. Rutgers Sep 20 $100 +$85 +85%
Padres vs. White Sox Sep 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Mariners vs. Astros Sep 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Cubs vs. Reds Sep 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Giants vs. Dodgers Sep 19 $115 −$115 -100%
Spread: BUF (-11.5) Sep 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Cubs vs. Reds Sep 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? Sep 18 $100 +$163 +163%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-18? Sep 18 $200 +$133 +66%
Marlins vs. Rockies Sep 18 $100 +$69 +70%
Phillies vs. Dodgers Sep 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Padres vs. Mets Sep 18 $100 +$115 +115%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-17? Sep 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 39¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AN BUY 35¢ $20 3h
Commanders vs. Falcons BUY Commanders 45¢ $112 274d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $200 274d
LSU vs. Ole Miss BUY LSU 47¢ $200 275d
O/U 52.5 BUY Over 54¢ $100 275d
Spread: Penn State (-3.5) BUY Penn State 51¢ $200 275d
Alabama vs. Georgia BUY Georgia 56¢ $100 275d
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $100 275d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 275d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs MIBR BUY Team Heretics 45¢ $50 276d
Will Girona win on 2025-09-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 276d
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays BUY Red Sox 45¢ $120 276d
Seahawks vs. Cardinals BUY Seahawks 54¢ $100 276d
Astros vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 0¢ $1 276d
Seahawks vs. Cardinals BUY Seahawks 55¢ $200 276d
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $370 276d
Will FC Porto win on 2025-09-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $370 276d
Will FC Porto win on 2025-09-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $200 277d
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $200 277d
Mets vs. Cubs SELL Cubs 100¢ $377 277d
Mets vs. Cubs BUY Cubs 53¢ $200 277d
Marlins vs. Phillies BUY Phillies 60¢ $250 277d
Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $238 277d
Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $105 278d
Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $105 278d
Mets vs. Cubs SELL Mets 100¢ $200 278d
Marlins vs. Phillies BUY Phillies 66¢ $200 278d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $49.10 · 88 history records