Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cfc…b237 other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+2%) realized +$69 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate93%104W / 8L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$19
crypto 21% $0
world 8% −$2
sports 1% +$55
tech 1% −$1
weather 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 21 -9.0% -17.7% 90% 0% -9.1%
all 112 -4.8% -13.9% 93% 4% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 4% -7.8%
10% -22.1% 2% -16.6%
15% -29.7% 2% -24.6%
20% -36.6% 1% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.81 per $1 lost it wins $6.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses104 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage465d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $92 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $91 $0 +0%
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $88 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $88 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 10? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $90 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 29 $88 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 23 $88 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 19 $87 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 16 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 11 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 03 $82 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 29 $81 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 24 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 14 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 27? Mar 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 27? Mar 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026? Mar 07 $80 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026? Feb 27 $86 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026? Feb 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026? Feb 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? Feb 12 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 4? Feb 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 Feb 05 $78 +$2 +2%
Will Solana dip to $60 in January? Feb 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in January? Feb 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 04 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026 Jan 30 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Ja Jan 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 5? Jan 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 25? Jan 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Jan 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Oracle be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jan 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jan 05 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 16? Dec 25 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $72 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $92 9d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $91 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $91 17d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $89 22d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 24d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 33d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $6 38d
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 100¢ $2 38d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $82 38d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 49d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $88 55d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 59d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 63d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $87 68d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $86 76d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $82 81d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $81 86d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 86d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 86d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $4 86d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $87 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $87 103d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 111d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 27? BUY No 99¢ $2 111d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $86 126d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $84 133d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 133d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.22 · official $71.29 (match) · 221 history records