Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:30:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1cfc…2111
world · 85 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$64,854 +36%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$42,517 · open +$12,022
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$100,545
Realized+$42,517
Unrealized+$12,022
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses42 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions388
Markets (closed)143 / 85
Avg bet$2,100
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 388 History 143 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,376
7 days+$5,178
14 days+$20,020
30 days+$20,650
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 80¢ 99¢ $12,277 $15,240 +$2,964 (+24%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 55¢ 82¢ $8,463 $12,582 +$4,119 (+49%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 56¢ 72¢ $4,537 $5,868 +$1,331 (+29%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $5,379 $5,610 +$231 (+4%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $3,169 $4,001 +$832 (+26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $3,348 $3,481 +$132 (+4%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 36¢ 77¢ $1,505 $3,232 +$1,728 (+115%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $3,152 $3,147 −$5 (-0%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 73¢ 89¢ $2,234 $2,719 +$485 (+22%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $2,604 $2,680 +$76 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $1,444 $2,406 +$962 (+67%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 60¢ 88¢ $1,274 $1,851 +$576 (+45%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $1,208 $1,769 +$561 (+46%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 53¢ 52¢ $1,528 $1,495 −$33 (-2%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? No 42¢ 95¢ $630 $1,421 +$791 (+126%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $2,857 $1,319 −$1,538 (-54%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 61¢ 64¢ $1,190 $1,261 +$71 (+6%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 22¢ 48¢ $496 $1,108 +$612 (+124%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 64¢ 66¢ $994 $1,021 +$28 (+3%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 81¢ 97¢ $821 $977 +$156 (+19%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 87¢ 80¢ $971 $896 −$75 (-8%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 80¢ 94¢ $718 $846 +$128 (+18%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 75¢ 88¢ $660 $783 +$123 (+19%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 93¢ 94¢ $673 $676 +$4 (+1%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 92¢ $557 $657 +$100 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals by August 31? Jun 12 $46 −$52 -113%
Dilan Yeşilgöz out as VVD leader before Netherlands election? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in June? Jun 12 $12 +$75 +646%
North Korea missile launch by November 15? Jun 12 $37 −$35 -93%
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 27 ET? Jun 12 $0 +$34 +13865%
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 15%? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -64%
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $8.5-10m? Jun 12 $285 −$282 -99%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 12 $0 −$129 -1236157%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jun 12 $64 −$142 -222%
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? Jun 12 $30 −$13 -44%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in 2025? Jun 12 $9 −$10 -111%
Will Terry McLaurin leave the Commanders before Week 1? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will 'The Fate of Ophelia' be the highest ranked song from Taylor Swif Jun 12 $2 −$3 -200%
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31? Jun 12 $42 −$181 -432%
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 12 $12 −$14 -114%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Jalen Hurts win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by October 31? Jun 12 $1 +$150 +14722%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on August 18 Jun 12 $18 −$17 -96%
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be betwe Jun 12 $15 +$286 +1881%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in November? Jun 12 $0 +$20 +8182%
Will Son Heung-min sign with a new club during the transfer window? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -145%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $220? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 12 $149 −$149 -100%
2025 September 4th or lower hottest on record? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will DJ Moore be traded before the 2025 NFL trade deadline Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of November 10 above $1,090? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will MAS‑IPSP win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election? Jun 12 $5 −$8 -151%
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by September 30? Jun 12 $171 −$179 -105%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in June? Jun 12 $23 −$34 -149%
Will Trump say “Secretary of War” this week? (November 10 - 16) Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) win the Nobel Jun 12 $21 +$52 +250%
Will Trump say "Iran" during Egypt summit? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Keith Lehr win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by December 31? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of November 10 above $1,160? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon tweet 425–449 times August 15–August 22? Jun 12 $6 −$14 -231%
Will Simone Biles be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 12 $5 −$8 -186%
Will Jeannette Jara win between 24% and 28% of votes in the first roun Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Sunday? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Trump say "AOC" or "Crockett" during "60 Minutes" on November 2? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Churchill Downs (CHDN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $104 −$112 -108%
Will Integra LifeSciences Holdings (IART) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 10 above $203? Jun 12 $0 −$10 -6602%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 51% +$26,540
other 24% +$1,455
politics 12% +$8,863
crypto 8% +$14,992
economics 3% +$1,795
tech 1% −$419
sports 1% +$5,805
finance 1% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $76 24m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $80 53m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $74 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $58 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $54 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $54 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $34 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $61 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $68 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $50 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $70 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+50.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +64.4% +48.7% 15% 15% +105.7%
≤30d 104 +62.9% +47.4% 20% 18% +55.8%
≤90d 143 +66.6% +50.7% 29% 23% +28.7%
all 143 +66.6% +50.7% 29% 23% +28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +50.7% 23% +28.7%
10% +36.3% 21% +16.4%
15% ← realistic here +23.1% 19% +5.1%
20% +11.0% 16% -5.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100,544.88 · official $100,542.83 (match) · 3500 history records