Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:14:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cfa…37f0 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 737d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate61%28W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$223
politics 36% −$1
sports 16% +$302
crypto 2% +$5
weather 1% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +126.4% +104.9% 67% 67% +76.1%
all 46 -6.7% -15.6% 61% 20% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 20% -9.2%
10% -23.6% 13% -17.9%
15% -31.0% 9% -25.8%
20% -37.8% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +95% too few recent
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$23 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

737d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses28 / 18
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage737d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 55¢ 66¢ $245 $296 +$51 (+21%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 33¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 11 $202 +$133 +66%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $50 +$206 +414%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET Jan 18 $27 −$1 -4%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $583 −$135 -23%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 21 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 15 $150 +$25 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on De Dec 04 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? Nov 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 19 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 17 $100 +$35 +35%
Will the fight be won by submission? Nov 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? Oct 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons (BO3) Oct 11 $11 +$3 +22%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) Oct 09 $8 +$3 +41%
Will FURIA win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Sep 10 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 9–16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20? Feb 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov Feb 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan Feb 16 $11 −$4 -35%
Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? Dec 20 $8 +$2 +23%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6? Dec 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump win Alaska by 6+ points? Dec 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Nov 22-29? Dec 01 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 15-22? Nov 28 $11 $0 +3%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Nov 16 $11 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will a Republican win Washington US Senate Election? Nov 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will B8 win ESL Challenger Katowice 2024? Oct 29 $6 $0 +6%
Will Legacy win ESL Challenger Katowice 2024? Oct 29 $11 $0 +2%
Will Kamala lead in RCP by 0.5-0.9 on Oct 18? Oct 20 $17 $0 +1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Rio 2024? Oct 14 $11 +$7 +64%
Will Trump tweet 50 or more times October 4-11? Oct 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 175-199 times? Oct 07 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times? Oct 01 $38 −$38 -100%
Trump sentenced to between 36 and 47 months prison time? Sep 27 $494 −$1 -0%
Trump sentenced to between 0 and 11 months prison time? Sep 27 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala lead in RCP by 1-1.4 on Sept 27? Sep 27 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala lead in RCP by 0.5-0.9 on Sept 27? Sep 27 $498 −$1 -0%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ Sep 26 $500 −$2 -0%
ABC Whistleblower report released by Sunday? Sep 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Hakeem Jeffries call on Biden to drop out by July 21? Jul 22 $38 $0 +0%
Biden drops out by July 12? Jul 13 $37 +$1 +3%
Biden drops out by July 4? Jul 09 $36 +$1 +2%
Biden accepts crypto donations by Friday? Jul 03 $33 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin above $71,000 on June 14? Jun 18 $29 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $248 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 33¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 60¢ $202 40d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY G2 19¢ $51 40d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $50 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $26 152d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $27 152d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL No $140 171d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL No $12 171d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $296 173d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL Yes 91¢ $296 175d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $286 180d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? SELL No 90¢ $111 180d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on De BUY Yes 91¢ $65 196d
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 212d
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 212d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 86¢ $150 213d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 215d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Makhachev 74¢ $100 215d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 81¢ $100 228d
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? SELL Yes $0 244d
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $14 251d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons (BO3) BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $11 253d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) BUY Vitality 71¢ $8 254d
Will FURIA win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? BUY No 92¢ $8 368d
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 9–16? BUY No 95¢ $7 400d
Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan BUY Makhachev 77¢ $11 521d
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov BUY Nurmagomedov 73¢ $14 521d
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20? BUY No 85¢ $10 546d
Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? BUY No 81¢ $8 564d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.38 · official $291.92 · 98 history records