Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1cf9…0fdf
sports · 183 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$10
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses93 / 83
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)176 / 183
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day46.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 7 History 176 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren Toby Samuel 49¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+104%)
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 52¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+92%)
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Darja Vidmanova 70¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 50¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Ben Shelton 45¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Celine Naef 67¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Billy Harris 72¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Juan Bautista Torres 55¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Over 21¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 57¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Under 63¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 47¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Modena: Jeline Vandromme vs Angela Fita Boluda Angela Fita Boluda 41¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Juan Manuel La Serna Juan Manuel La Serna 64¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Seattle Mariners 46¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 58¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Over 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
ITF Ceska Lipa: Lucie Havlickova vs Hibah Shaikh Hibah Shaikh 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? No 73¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Boston Red Sox 37¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Karim Bennani 55¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Gauthier Onclin 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Lyon: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Kimmer Coppejans Alejandro Moro Canas 78¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $1 +$2 +206%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1 +$1 +55%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1 +$2 +180%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +24%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +24%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +86%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +70%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Cattolica: Alexander Vasilev vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 10 $1 $0 +32%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $1 +$2 +216%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $1 +$1 +109%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $1 $0 +46%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $1 +$2 +180%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $1 +$1 +105%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +140%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1 +$3 +262%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $1 +$1 +119%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 10 $1 $0 +36%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +29%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 10 $1 $0 +23%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Martina Trevisan Jun 10 $1 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% −$4
other 3% +$2
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo BUY Celine Naef 67¢ $1 25m
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Darja Vidmanova 70¢ $1 1h
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren BUY Toby Samuel 49¢ $1 1h
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana BUY Mary Stoiana 81¢ $1 2h
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 46¢ $1 3h
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 81¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 52¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 38¢ $1 4h
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Dusan Lajovic 57¢ $1 6h
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 72¢ $1 8h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 45¢ $1 10h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 50¢ $1 11h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $1 40h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $1 40h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 46¢ $1 40h
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 61¢ $1 40h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 40h
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 41h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 41h
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 41h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 41h
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 41h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 21¢ $1 41h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 24¢ $1 41h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 61¢ $1 42h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 71¢ $1 42h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 30¢ $1 42h
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 64¢ $1 43h
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 43h
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 97¢ $1 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 52% -11.9%
≤30d 176 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 52% -11.9%
≤90d 176 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 52% -11.9%
all 176 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 52% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 52% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 48% -20.3%
15% -28.5% 38% -28.0%
20% -35.6% 29% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.78 · official $9.77 (match) · 277 history records