Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cf5…31f9 sports 907 markets active 3d ago coverage 124d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,144 (-6%) realized −$3,144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%385W / 522L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$754est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3,531
14 days−$3,188
30 days−$3,147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$2,362
crypto 7% −$149
other 3% −$878
culture 0% +$1
world 0% −$7
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -36.8% -42.8% 24% 24% -44.8%
≤30d 232 -6.5% -15.4% 34% 33% -18.9%
≤90d 743 -12.0% -20.4% 35% 34% -22.2%
all 907 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 41% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 41% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 38% -23.9%
15% -25.6% 34% -31.2%
20% -32.9% 32% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$29 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses385 / 522
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$754
Open positions0
Markets (closed)907 / 907
History coverage124d ⚠
Avg bet$54
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 907 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $44 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $41 −$15 -36%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $100 −$98 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $115 −$7 -6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $280 −$165 -59%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $245 +$35 +14%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $132 −$89 -67%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $1,123 −$67 -6%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $73 −$40 -54%
ITF Wuning: Hanna Chang vs Reina Goto Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Cattolica: Petr Nesterov vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $81 −$32 -39%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $113 −$89 -78%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 12 $661 −$53 -8%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $113 −$113 -100%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Diego Dedura-Palomero Jun 12 $305 −$187 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $289 −$289 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 12 $1,335 −$318 -24%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $363 −$363 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $153 −$153 -100%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov Jun 12 $403 −$403 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-06-06? Jun 12 $693 −$693 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $210 −$209 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $85 −$83 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $130 +$89 +69%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $99 +$54 +54%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $140 +$46 +33%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $140 −$114 -82%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $44 +$34 +78%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $141 −$57 -41%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $35 +$27 +78%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $19 +$33 +172%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $162 +$161 +99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $26 +$121 +474%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $152 +$126 +82%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $74 +$37 +50%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $199 −$102 -51%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $180 +$62 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 39¢ $44 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 21¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 11¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 61¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 76¢ $20 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 32¢ $8 3d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 36¢ $8 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $100 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $108 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $115 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 23¢ $115 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $167 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter SELL Elena Rybakina 81¢ $69 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $114 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter SELL Elena Rybakina 83¢ $212 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Elena Rybakina 73¢ $43 4d
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones SELL Jack Pinnington Jones 20¢ $43 4d
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 59¢ $132 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Elena Rybakina 71¢ $202 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $210 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 11¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 31¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 46¢ $50 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 19¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $61 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 31¢ $46 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 4¢ $7 4d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 20¢ $6 4d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 32¢ $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records