Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:29:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1cef…b88d sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,879 (-9%) realized −$2,883 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,148per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$652now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% −$971
sports 22% −$1,862
other 12% +$842
economics 6% −$833
crypto 1% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 11 -89.4% -90.4% 9% 9% -82.5%
all 28 -19.2% -26.9% 54% 32% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 32% -17.5%
10% -33.9% 21% -25.4%
15% -40.3% 21% -32.6%
20% -46.1% 18% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$870) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +20% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$221 vs −$477 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$652
Realized−$2,883
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage547d
Avg bet$1,148
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $648 $652 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 04 $1,176 −$1,176 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Apr 20 $536 −$536 -100%
Bulls vs. Warriors Apr 20 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Apr 20 $870 −$870 -100%
Pelicans vs. 76ers Apr 20 $437 −$437 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Nets vs. Hawks Apr 20 $357 −$357 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Apr 20 $285 −$285 -100%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Apr 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Apr 20 $378 −$378 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $1,032 +$168 +16%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Feb 13 $1,183 +$117 +10%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Jan 23 $570 +$430 +75%
Pelicans vs. Wizards Jan 11 $728 +$572 +79%
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers Jan 07 $340 +$160 +47%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 31 $860 +$140 +16%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-24? Nov 30 $450 +$550 +122%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 03 $480 +$1,020 +212%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 23 $27 +$4 +14%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Aug 10 $963 +$37 +4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 22 $584 −$584 -100%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 30 $184 +$116 +63%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $197 +$3 +2%
Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 10 $498 +$2 +0%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Mar 02 $798 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 21 $17,882 −$11 -0%
Will Liverpool lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 05 $269 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $652 1h
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 84¢ $1,176 49d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $25 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $307 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $9 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $9 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $7 64d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $6 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $651.92 · official $652.00 (match) · 339 history records