Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:44:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cef…5961 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$217 · open −$215
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$501
sports 25% −$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -4.7% -13.8% 33% 33% -98.8%
≤90d 3 -4.7% -13.8% 33% 33% -98.8%
all 3 -4.7% -13.8% 33% 33% -98.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 33% -98.8%
10% -22.0% 33% -98.9%
15% -29.5% 33% -99.0%
20% -36.4% 33% -99.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -99% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -99% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$215 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized+$217
Unrealized−$215
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage24d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? No 55¢ 100¢ $83 $150 +$67 (+81%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 100¢ $26 $100 +$73 (+277%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? No 76¢ 100¢ $38 $50 +$12 (+32%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? No 76¢ 0¢ $154 $0 −$154 (-100%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? No 70¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $432 −$430 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 04 $2 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 57m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 57m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 51¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $22 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $22 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $36 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 57¢ $28 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 68¢ $34 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $37 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $38 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $38 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $38 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 58¢ $29 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 69¢ $34 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $4 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 71¢ $36 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.05 · official $300.50 (match) · 40 history records