Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1C 0x1cec…6ab0 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$444 (-61%) realized −$445 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip

Net edge-57%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate30%3W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$49per market

Trades / day17.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)-53.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	-48.7%	-53.6%	30%	30%	-83.8%
≤30d	10	-48.7%	-53.6%	30%	30%	-83.8%
≤90d	10	-48.7%	-53.6%	30%	30%	-83.8%
all	10	-48.7%	-53.6%	30%	30%	-83.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover17.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-53.6%	30%	-83.8%
10%	-58.0%	20%	-85.4%
15%	-62.1%	10%	-86.8%
20%	-65.8%	10%	-88.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 91% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -82% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -49% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$69 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.05 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$166

Realized−$445

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)30%

Wins / losses3 / 7

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)10 / 15

History coverage2d

Avg bet$49

Trades / day17.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$55	$55	−$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	56¢	56¢	$40	$40	−$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	No	84¢	100¢	$10	$12	+$2 (+19%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-93%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$16	−$16	-100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$12	−$12	-100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$20	+$2	+12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	$0	-5%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$22	+$7	+31%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$23	+$16	+68%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$162	−$162	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$281	−$281	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$56	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$41	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$31	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$31	1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY No	84¢	$10	23h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	23h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	78¢	$10	23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$2	23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	62¢	$10	23h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL No	77¢	$10	23h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	78¢	$10	23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$1	23h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY No	75¢	$3	23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$15	23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	SELL No	100¢	$29	26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$38	26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY No	75¢	$22	34h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$23	34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$134	37h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY No	83¢	$137	37h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY No	83¢	$10	38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$101	38h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY No	83¢	$15	38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$46	39h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.83 · official $165.83 (match) · 33 history records