Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:52:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1C 0x1cea…181d sports 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$870 (-8%) realized −$809 · open −$61
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate65%31W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$4,493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$680
14 days−$855
30 days−$855
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$16
other 28% −$721
politics 15% −$4
world 8% −$217
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% +$7
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -18.5% -26.3% 69% 40% -19.5%
≤30d 48 -23.6% -30.9% 65% 38% -21.7%
≤90d 48 -23.6% -30.9% 65% 38% -21.7%
all 48 -23.6% -30.9% 65% 38% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 38% -21.7%
10% -37.5% 19% -29.2%
15% -43.5% 6% -36.0%
20% -49.1% 4% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$93 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$4,493
Realized−$809
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses31 / 17
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions36
Markets (closed)48 / 86
History coverage7d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $300 $306 +$6 (+2%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 87¢ 86¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 86¢ 91¢ $250 $265 +$15 (+6%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 96¢ 90¢ $250 $232 −$18 (-7%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 80¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 77¢ 76¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 84¢ 95¢ $150 $170 +$20 (+13%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+2%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No 83¢ 84¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 92¢ 92¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 49¢ 48¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump dance on June 29, 2026? No 96¢ 90¢ $150 $141 −$9 (-6%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Under 69¢ 45¢ $200 $130 −$70 (-35%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 99¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 84¢ 92¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 86¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 61¢ 63¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 88¢ 90¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? No 89¢ 90¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $24 +$7 +27%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $150 +$9 +6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $100 +$8 +8%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $151 +$16 +11%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$8 +8%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $151 −$150 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $101 +$11 +11%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $150 +$11 +7%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $501 +$53 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$79 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $151 +$24 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $150 +$10 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $151 +$20 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $44 +$11 +25%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $201 +$39 +19%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $501 +$54 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $50 +$11 +23%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $25 +$8 +32%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$22 +22%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $503 +$100 +20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $251 +$18 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $250 +$12 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $151 +$31 +20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 +$84 +83%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $14 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $25 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $50 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $24 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $150 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $50 25h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 77¢ $202 36h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 85¢ $151 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $150 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $151 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $201 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $100 2d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $150 2d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 96¢ $250 2d
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat BUY Yes 72¢ $25 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corne BUY 56¢ $152 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $501 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $150 2d
Will Donald Trump dance on June 29, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $150 2d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY No 83¢ $151 2d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY No 90¢ $101 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 88¢ $151 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $151 2d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $155 2d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 49¢ $153 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,492.80 · official $4,492.82 (match) · 129 history records