Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1C 0x1cea…9e0c sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$95 (+5%) realized +$57 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$585now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$208
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$161
other 36% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.7% -24.6% 33% 33% -44.4%
≤30d 9 +6.0% -4.1% 56% 56% -6.4%
≤90d 9 +6.0% -4.1% 56% 56% -6.4%
all 9 +6.0% -4.1% 56% 56% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 56% -6.4%
10% -13.2% 44% -15.3%
15% -21.6% 11% -23.5%
20% -29.3% 11% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$55 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$585
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage19d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $246 $309 +$63 (+26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $200 $187 −$13 (-7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $256 −$56 -22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $37 +$11 +29%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $42 −$3 -8%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $51 −$9 -18%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +18%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 21 $151 −$151 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $151 +$39 +26%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $518 +$164 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $584.84 · official $584.84 (match) · 31 history records