Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:45:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1C 0x1ce9…7115 sports 318 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$727 (-8%) realized −$774 · open +$47
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%193W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$184
7 days−$184
14 days−$223
30 days−$951
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$680
crypto 18% −$151
other 2% +$37
world 1% −$12
culture 1% $0
tech 0% +$4
politics 0% +$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -29.2% -35.9% 44% 44% -42.1%
≤30d 166 -13.6% -21.8% 58% 51% -40.9%
≤90d 311 -10.3% -18.8% 62% 52% -17.7%
all 311 -10.3% -18.8% 62% 52% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 52% -17.7%
10% -26.6% 36% -25.5%
15% -33.7% 23% -32.7%
20% -40.2% 10% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$25 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized−$774
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses193 / 118
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions7
Markets (closed)311 / 318
History coverage60d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 311 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 68¢ 99¢ $70 $101 +$31 (+45%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 65¢ 97¢ $32 $49 +$16 (+50%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 68¢ 68¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 64¢ 82¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+29%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 53¢ 52¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 66¢ 46¢ $24 $17 −$8 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $24 +$20 +83%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $24 +$20 +83%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $25 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $25 +$10 +42%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $25 +$12 +50%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $34 +$9 +27%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $25 +$12 +50%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $24 +$21 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$50 +101%
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? Jun 08 $0 $0 -68%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -30%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -23%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 +9%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $9 −$1 -16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 08 $8 $0 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +34%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $10 +$2 +17%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $10 +$3 +34%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 07 $10 $0 -3%
Will England win? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +14%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $10 +$3 +26%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $10 +$5 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 65¢ $33 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 68¢ $35 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 69¢ $36 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 68¢ $34 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 64¢ $25 15h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $24 16h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 54¢ $24 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $24 18h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 66¢ $25 18h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 70¢ $25 18h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 66¢ $25 19h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $25 19h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 78¢ $34 19h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $24 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 64¢ $25 23h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $24 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $24 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $24 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $15 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $48 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $50 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 9d
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? SELL Yes $0 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $3 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 50¢ $4 9d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $5 9d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $7 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $8 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.14 · official $279.59 (match) · 779 history records