Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:02:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1ce4…46ae weather 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$2
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% $0
sports 10% −$20
weather 10% −$41
crypto 8% +$15
other 6% +$45
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +50.0% +35.7% 50% 50% -13.8%
≤30d 8 +45.6% +31.7% 50% 50% +11.4%
≤90d 8 +45.6% +31.7% 50% 50% +11.4%
all 43 +4.6% -5.3% 35% 26% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 26% -9.7%
10% -14.4% 26% -18.3%
15% -22.7% 26% -26.2%
20% -30.2% 19% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage531d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 23? No 68¢ 68¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? No 70¢ 68¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Jun 20 $7 +$11 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $7 +$16 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $24 +$26 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$11 +255%
Senators vs. Maple Leafs Mar 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Devils vs. Penguins Feb 28 $18 +$12 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 39°F or below on February 2 Feb 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Feb 22 $17 +$19 +113%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 19? Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 17? Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026 Feb 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets Feb 13 $11 +$19 +170%
76ers vs. Suns Feb 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $12 +$23 +190%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 05 $268 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 04 $273 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 4? Feb 04 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 04 $262 $0 -0%
Canadiens vs. Wild Feb 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Rangers vs. Penguins Feb 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $29 +$11 +37%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 24 $10 $0 -4%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 23 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Sep 22 $8 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Sep 22 $12 $0 -4%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Sep 20 $15 −$1 -10%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Sep 17 $8 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 15 $26 −$1 -5%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Sep 14 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $10 $0 -3%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? Apr 08 $7 $0 -3%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 07 $2 $0 -2%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after th Mar 27 $4 $0 -4%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31? Mar 22 $3 +$1 +50%
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney? Jan 12 $3 +$1 +43%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 10 $1 $0 -1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jan 08 $4 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 68¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 70¢ $22 25h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 75¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $11 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 8d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 10d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 46¢ $24 11d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 13d
Senators vs. Maple Leafs BUY Maple Leafs 48¢ $15 114d
Devils vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 59¢ $18 115d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 39°F or below on February 2 BUY Yes 43¢ $9 119d
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA BUY USA 47¢ $17 121d
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 19? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 17? BUY Up 52¢ $10 125d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026 BUY Yes 40¢ $6 127d
Bulls vs. Nets BUY Nets 37¢ $11 133d
76ers vs. Suns BUY Suns 56¢ $28 134d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 136d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $268 136d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $268 137d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $273 138d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 4? SELL Up 77¢ $14 138d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 4? BUY Up 70¢ $13 138d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $273 138d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $261 138d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $262 138d
Canadiens vs. Wild BUY Canadiens 45¢ $16 140d
Rangers vs. Penguins BUY Rangers 37¢ $11 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.19 · official $49.19 (match) · 94 history records