Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1ce2…ddfe politics 17 markets active 7d ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$356per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$5
other 12% −$1
sports 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage135d
Avg bet$356
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 11 $350 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $367 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 10 $372 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $368 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 08 $314 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 05 $389 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $334 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $310 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 26 $344 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 6d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 21d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 21d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $5 78d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 84d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 84d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 94d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $380 123d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $380 123d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $350 125d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $350 125d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $367 125d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $367 126d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $372 126d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $372 126d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $368 126d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $368 127d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $314 128d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $314 129d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $389 131d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $389 131d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $369 131d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $369 132d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $368 132d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $368 133d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $334 135d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $334 135d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $287 135d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $287 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.30 · official $5.30 (match) · 57 history records