Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:56:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1cdf…c210
world · 78 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$11 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses25 / 51
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage516d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 2 History 76 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? No 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +33%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $99 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $17 −$2 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $108 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $69 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +19%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $15 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $37 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $62 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 18 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $31 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $28 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $11 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $74 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $62 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $63 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $62 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% −$2
other 26% +$10
politics 20% +$1
sports 12% −$19
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 13h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $32 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $32 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $34 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $34 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.3% -5.6% 67% 17% -8.9%
≤30d 24 +1.7% -8.0% 38% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 59 -1.3% -10.7% 29% 3% -9.5%
all 76 -2.7% -12.0% 33% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 9% -9.9%
10% -20.4% 7% -18.6%
15% -28.1% 5% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.04 · official $35.41 (match) · 310 history records