Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cdf…eba6 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-7%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$1
politics 31% $0
other 30% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -35.7% -41.8% 33% 0% -25.3%
≤30d 3 -35.7% -41.8% 33% 0% -25.3%
≤90d 3 -35.7% -41.8% 33% 0% -25.3%
all 3 -35.7% -41.8% 33% 0% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.8% 0% -25.3%
10% -47.4% 0% -32.4%
15% -52.5% 0% -39.0%
20% -57.1% 0% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 14¢ 11¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 Jun 16 $3 −$2 -78%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 Jun 16 $17 −$5 -30%
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.84 · official $4.84 (match) · 18 history records