Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cdf…7363 other 212 markets active 15h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%3W / 209L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$1
politics 18% −$1
tech 15% −$1
crypto 11% $0
world 10% −$1
sports 4% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 49 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 137 -1.6% -11.0% 1% 0% -10.9%
all 212 -2.0% -11.3% 1% 0% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -11.1%
10% -19.8% 0% -19.6%
15% -27.5% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses3 / 209
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)212 / 212
History coverage223d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 212 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 19? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will Bruce Blakeman win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Human moon landing in 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -0%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -1%
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 04 $1 $0 -3%
Will Josh Turek win the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary by between 20% Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-11 House seat? Jun 03 $1 $0 -5%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 2 weeks? Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
1+ MLB home runs on Monday? Jun 02 $1 $0 -2%
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -2%
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -4%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 01 $1 $0 -3%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 61m? May 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hern be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? May 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ink launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 29 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca May 29 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Democrats (D) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? May 28 $1 $0 -2%
JD Vance out as VP by June 15? May 28 $1 $0 -1%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 27 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
Citrea FDV above $20M one day after launch? May 25 $1 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Seattle have less than 0.5 inches of precipitation in May? May 21 $1 $0 -6%
Over $1B crypto hack value in 2026? May 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $1 $0 -1%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 50B in Q1? May 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the most seats in the 2027 Me May 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30? May 18 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1 14h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 15h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 15h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 44h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m SELL Yes 98¢ $1 44h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 45h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $1 45h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL No 95¢ $1 4d
Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by SELL No 98¢ $1 4d
Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C or below on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 5d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $1 6d
Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 6d
Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 100¢ $1 6d
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 7d
Will Bruce Blakeman win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary SELL Yes 96¢ $1 7d
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 7d
Will Bruce Blakeman win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 97¢ $1 7d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 8d
Human moon landing in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 534 history records