Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1cde…96e2 sports 223 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,735 (-18%) realized −$14,746 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%99W / 123L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$367per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$954est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,556
7 days−$5,132
14 days−$10,923
30 days−$15,275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$15,529
other 6% +$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -27.5% -34.4% 36% 36% -33.1%
≤30d 222 -6.6% -15.5% 45% 43% -26.6%
≤90d 222 -6.6% -15.5% 45% 43% -26.6%
all 222 -6.6% -15.5% 45% 43% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 43% -26.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 41% -33.6%
15% -30.9% 32% -40.1%
20% -37.7% 26% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$233 vs −$312 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$682
Realized−$14,746
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses99 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$954
Open positions1
Markets (closed)222 / 223
History coverage16d
Avg bet$367
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka Naomi Osaka 84¢ 86¢ $631 $643 +$11 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $252 −$247 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $1,993 −$1,977 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $445 −$15 -3%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $322 −$317 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $526 +$510 +97%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $236 −$232 -98%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $753 +$1,304 +173%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 25 $62 −$61 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 25 $49 −$9 -18%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,114 −$1,099 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Oceane Dodin vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew Jun 24 $264 −$259 -98%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $1,173 +$288 +24%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Jun 24 $126 −$124 -99%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic Jun 24 $44 −$43 -98%
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $45 +$15 +32%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $929 +$1,102 +119%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana Jun 23 $19 −$18 -99%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $340 +$357 +105%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $469 −$463 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston Jun 23 $16 +$20 +119%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $15 +$13 +83%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $136 +$78 +57%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 23 $966 −$109 -11%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 23 $155 −$153 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $230 −$226 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 22 $236 −$234 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $132 −$131 -99%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re Jun 22 $95 −$93 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $161 −$140 -87%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 22 $1,349 −$1,335 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,283 −$1,269 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith Jun 22 $34 +$11 +31%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Daniil Glinka vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 22 $18 +$15 +86%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 22 $530 −$18 -3%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 22 $952 −$289 -30%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 22 $1,239 −$386 -31%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 21 $769 +$259 +34%
Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora Jun 21 $79 +$28 +36%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 21 $262 −$258 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 21 $168 −$166 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $403 +$104 +26%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $354 +$154 +44%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $188 −$184 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $578 +$497 +86%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $174 +$73 +42%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $32 −$31 -99%
Burruchaga vs. Fery: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 21 $14 −$14 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $432 −$427 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 84¢ $634 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 31¢ $244 7h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 41¢ $8 7h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 44¢ $43 10h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $471 11h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 79¢ $606 11h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 79¢ $15 11h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 84¢ $857 11h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 44¢ $7 38h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 44¢ $315 38h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 51¢ $25 46h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 51¢ $419 46h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $526 2d
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner BUY So:sweet 34¢ $145 2d
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner BUY So:sweet 34¢ $91 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 28¢ $30 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 64¢ $62 2d
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Isurus 61¢ $49 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 36¢ $753 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,114 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Oceane Dodin vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew BUY Oceane Dodin 31¢ $264 3d
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A BUY Mandatory 54¢ $126 3d
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic BUY Ognjen Milic 39¢ $44 3d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 69¢ $681 4d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 51¢ $484 4d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 50¢ $492 4d
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 2 Winner BUY LYON 75¢ $45 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 45¢ $929 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana BUY Mary Stoiana 56¢ $19 4d
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY T1 Academy 37¢ $76 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $682.27 · official $682.27 (match) · 475 history records