Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1cdd…e595
weather · 434 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$38,984 -174%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,206 · open +$520
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$30,754
Realized+$2,206
Unrealized+$520
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses188 / 57
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions499
Markets (closed)245 / 434
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2482.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 499 History 245 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,206
7 days+$2,206
14 days+$2,206
30 days+$2,206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 81¢ 86¢ $467 $499 +$32 (+7%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? No 58¢ 63¢ $351 $381 +$30 (+9%)
Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? No 92¢ 99¢ $340 $366 +$26 (+8%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $345 $332 −$13 (-4%)
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $246 $269 +$22 (+9%)
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $211 $263 +$53 (+25%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 98¢ 100¢ $241 $245 +$4 (+2%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B? No 29¢ 30¢ $223 $228 +$5 (+2%)
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.35B? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $206 $204 −$3 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $177 $185 +$8 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $170 $171 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat? No 34¢ 36¢ $158 $165 +$7 (+4%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 77¢ 79¢ $151 $155 +$4 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? No 98¢ 99¢ $153 $154 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 69°F or below on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? No 53¢ 100¢ $80 $149 +$69 (+87%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Yes 53¢ 34¢ $224 $143 −$80 (-36%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $143 $143 −$0 (-0%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 91¢ $141 $142 +$1 (+1%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $152 $140 −$12 (-8%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 63¢ 78¢ $114 $139 +$25 (+22%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 95¢ 95¢ $139 $139 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 88¢ 88¢ $134 $134 +$0 (+0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $132 $133 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 12 $30 +$7 +24%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $47 −$13 -27%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $150 −$16 -11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $85 −$25 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $130 +$11 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $25 +$16 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $145 −$16 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -84%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $35 −$5 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 12 $138 +$11 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $39 −$8 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $75 +$34 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $218 −$3 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $63 −$14 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +64%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $75 +$15 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $47 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $61 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$8 +71%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $71 −$9 -13%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 +$19 +1011%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 12 $106 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$21 +522%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $184 +$16 +9%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $35 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $57 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $47 +$13 +28%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $53 +$104 +194%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $277 +$37 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $247 +$22 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 12 $2 +$28 +1900%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $50 +$40 +81%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $119 +$13 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$5 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $56 +$34 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $78 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $25 −$19 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $58 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $94 +$26 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $52 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 12 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 −$19 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$6 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $88 +$14 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% +$558
sports 14% +$520
world 12% +$492
weather 12% +$342
tech 3% +$207
politics 2% +$284
finance 1% +$262
economics 0% +$52
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY Yes 16¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 72¢ $14 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $8 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $17 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 72¢ $0 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 20¢ $2 0m
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 60¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 26¢ $8 0m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 0m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $26 0m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 49¢ $5 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 57¢ $1 0m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 0m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 0m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 0m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 0m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 73¢ $22 0m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 0m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 51¢ $0 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 56¢ $17 1m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+108.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 245 +130.9% +108.9% 77% 50% +5.0%
≤30d 245 +130.9% +108.9% 77% 50% +5.0%
≤90d 245 +130.9% +108.9% 77% 50% +5.0%
all 245 +130.9% +108.9% 77% 50% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2482.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +108.9% 50% +5.0%
10% ← realistic here +88.9% 42% -5.1%
15% +70.7% 34% -14.3%
20% +53.9% 30% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,753.99 · official $45,522.71 · 3500 history records