Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1C 0x1cd8…2011 sports 13 markets active 12h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+22%) realized +$18 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$24
other 29% −$5
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.6% -1.7% 64% 64% +10.9%
≤30d 11 +8.6% -1.7% 64% 64% +10.9%
≤90d 11 +8.6% -1.7% 64% 64% +10.9%
all 11 +8.6% -1.7% 64% 64% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 64% +10.9%
10% -11.1% 55% +0.3%
15% -19.7% 55% -9.4%
20% -27.6% 27% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$7 +140%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$2 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 +$8 +158%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 11h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 37¢ $2 12h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $3 12h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $5 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 86¢ $12 16h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 35¢ $5 16h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 90¢ $20 43h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.56 · official $6.56 (match) · 21 history records