Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1C 0x1cd6…fa3c other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$65 (-14%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip
Net edge+62%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$179
14 days+$179
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$183
sports 20% +$120
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+62.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +86.9% +69.1% 33% 33% +90.3%
≤30d 25 +79.4% +62.3% 32% 32% -24.5%
≤90d 25 +79.4% +62.3% 32% 32% -24.5%
all 25 +79.4% +62.3% 32% 32% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +62.3% 32% -24.5%
10% +46.8% 32% -31.7%
15% +32.6% 32% -38.3%
20% +19.6% 32% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +201% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$18 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 32
History coverage19d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +197%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$25 +97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 +$10 +246%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -70%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $26 +$53 +206%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$14 +89%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 +$60 +980%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$71 +1733%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $251 −$246 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 36m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 37m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will England vs. Croatia end BUY 10¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Eng BUY 7¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 16h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 16h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 25h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $26 25h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals AND Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? BUY 33¢ $1 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $29 25h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 26h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.76 · official $38.76 · 48 history records