Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:05:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1C 0x1cd5…5551 weather 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+1%) realized +$30 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%58W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$511now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$36
14 days−$41
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 46% +$9
other 31% +$99
politics 13% −$34
sports 4% −$33
tech 3% −$11
culture 3% +$8
economics 0% −$14
world 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +7.2% -3.0% 50% 50% -18.1%
≤30d 18 +2.5% -7.2% 50% 50% -12.6%
≤90d 26 -7.5% -16.3% 46% 46% -12.8%
all 113 +4.5% -5.5% 51% 42% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 42% -10.2%
10% -14.5% 35% -18.8%
15% -22.8% 24% -26.6%
20% -30.4% 13% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$511
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses58 / 55
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)113 / 124
History coverage146d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Éder Mauro win the Governor of Pará election? No 93¢ 90¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 33¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 88¢ 82¢ $80 $75 −$5 (-6%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 25¢ 27¢ $37 $40 +$3 (+7%)
Will Dr. Daniel Santos win the Governor of Pará election? Yes 37¢ 46¢ $29 $37 +$8 (+27%)
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 67¢ $20 $37 +$17 (+84%)
Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 44¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+153%)
Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 42¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+112%)
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Yes 27¢ 13¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-50%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $40 −$32 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$9 +28%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $81 −$80 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $71 +$47 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$5 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$9 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $40 +$10 +24%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5 +$15 +303%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $24 +$12 +50%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 08 $36 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $9 −$8 -89%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $8 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 +$4 +54%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 17 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Igor Thiago be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 01 $10 +$7 +70%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $30 +$17 +57%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 21 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Apr 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? Mar 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 20 Mar 25 $110 −$4 -4%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? Mar 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $15 +$5 +33%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars? Mar 16 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $25 +$12 +47%
Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 14 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $13 +$5 +36%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 08 $185 +$48 +26%
Who will finish higher: Alonso or Stroll? Mar 08 $3 +$6 +192%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 08 $60 −$21 -35%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 08 $10 −$6 -64%
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Leclerc? Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 8? Mar 08 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or higher on March 7? Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 6? Mar 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 5? Mar 05 $50 −$21 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 5? Mar 05 $10 −$5 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 5? Mar 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 5? Mar 05 $10 +$5 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 5? Mar 05 $15 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 5? Mar 05 $70 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 5? Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 5? Mar 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 17¢ $9 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 74¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $20 1h
Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? BUY No 88¢ $80 7h
Will Éder Mauro win the Governor of Pará election? BUY No 93¢ $150 7h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 92¢ $39 12h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 14h
Will Dr. Daniel Santos win the Governor of Pará election? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 2d
Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 18¢ $10 2d
Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 20¢ $10 2d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $71 2d
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $20 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 4¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 87¢ $81 2d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $118 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Will Dr. Daniel Santos win the Governor of Pará election? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 4d
Will Dr. Daniel Santos win the Governor of Pará election? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 4d
Will Dr. Daniel Santos win the Governor of Pará election? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 4d
Will Dr. Daniel Santos win the Governor of Pará election? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? SELL Yes 95¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $511.48 · official $511.48 (match) · 292 history records