Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cd3…d830 politics 4 markets active 18h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-10%) realized −$1 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 88% −$5
world 9% −$5
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$5 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $44 $40 −$4 (-10%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 18h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 26¢ $5 2d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.46 · official $45.46 (match) · 5 history records