Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1C 0x1cd2…39bd other 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 631d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$82 (+0%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate25%18W / 55L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$13
other 14% +$137
politics 13% −$7
world 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
sports 2% −$35
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -14.9% 6% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 53 -7.3% -16.1% 17% 13% -9.9%
all 73 -1.3% -10.7% 25% 15% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 15% -9.2%
10% -19.2% 15% -17.9%
15% -27.0% 14% -25.8%
20% -34.2% 10% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$3 · ×4.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

631d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses18 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage631d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $111 $111 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $21 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $228 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 01 $39 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $182 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $195 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 08 $389 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $392 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $199 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $194 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $193 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $202 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $186 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $192 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $191 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $386 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $201 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $204 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $200 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $208 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $12 +$7 +62%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$16 +165%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $12 +$3 +29%
Kings vs. Raptors Apr 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Kings vs. Rangers Apr 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Suns vs. Raptors Apr 06 $38 −$38 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $29 −$29 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Apr 01 $34 +$14 +40%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 30 $29 +$15 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 4h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 4h
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $111 18h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 23h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 24h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $34 2d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $34 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 7d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $25 7d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $25 8d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $21 8d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $21 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 9d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 10d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $9 10d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $23 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 14d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 14d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 15d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 15d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $39 17d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $39 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 17d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.84 · official $156.84 (match) · 336 history records